Wednesday, September 16, 2009


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Tuesday, March 3, 2009


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Monday, March 2, 2009

Thursday, February 12, 2009


Here is the new feed link were you can quickly sign up. The old feed will expire in 30 days. Thanks.

We packed up and changed addresses

As you may or may not have seen since you are still on this site, we have changed websites to (no blogspot address forwarding anymore). I will continue to leave this site up and running for now to help with a smooth transition. Feel free to head on over to the new site and take a look around! There are tons more resources for you there!

Wednesday, February 11, 2009





Global Economy...Tick, Tick, Tick

More news this morning from the UK that their recession is going to be deeper than expected. Big surprise right everyone? Still, the King is signaling more rate cuts and more injected cash to try and hold the system up in place. The GBP/USD is off more than 500 pips since its recent highs and looking to head lower. As for the US pre-market futures, they are still swinging between gains and losses. We might see a slight rally today given how over-sold we are from yesterday. But we will not get anywhere near where we opened yesterday. As we continue to move down, I'll be moving down stops on my shorts and taking profits on my longs. If you feel like your in the twilight zone hearing this its true. I'm using the same strategy just reversing my positions and making money all the market swings. S&P intra-day support and resistance targets below.

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

DOW Falls Nearly 5%, Who's Feeling Another Big Drop Coming?

Wow, I'm glad that I closed out some of my long positions at the open this morning. Saved me just about 8% today in protected profits. Since we were hedge for both directions, some of our short did amazingly well as you would expect with such a huge sell off. I have been looking at some of the longer term charts to get an idea of where we are heading and will have some thoughts on that tonight in the trading video. Please check back later for the video. We have a lot to talk about out there...

Monday, February 9, 2009

Market Swings To Neutral Close And Waits For Stimulus Bill

GM & Crisisler On The Brink Of Forced Bankruptcy

Good Morning! As you probably already saw in the news, the debt heavy auto makers might possibly be forced into bankruptcy soon to protect the US loan interests. Of course I won't get into politics here, but start keeping newspapers as we are witnessing the collapse of free market capitalism right in front of our eyes. It hasn't completely fallen apart yet, but we are getting very close! As for the markets, they seem to be taking the news with about a 1% decline in the futures. It's my hope that this week doesn't wipe out all my long profits, but I still hold a bunch of great looking shorts that will do just fine with a sell off. As a note, please watch the trading video from last night, as it has some great educational information. S&P support and resistance targets below.

Sunday, February 8, 2009

Weekend Wrap Up

Friday, February 6, 2009

Suprise, Suprise, Jobs Data Much Worse Than Expected

Good morning! I woke up this morning hoping that today would be just as great as yesterday for my portfolio. If you didn't watch the video last night (which is still below) then missed an amazing day for members and I as some of our longs were up over 16%! Of course I'm not bull-headed enough to think that will happen again today, but you never know what this market will throw at you. Since the jobs numbers came out a little while ago, futures have been shaky to say the least. I think its amazing that almost half of the jobs loses came in the last 3 months of 2008. Regardless, I remind everyone not to get caught up in the news and watch the charts. As has always been, the charts price in all the possible information and expectations in the market which gives us a clearer picture of market direction than anything else out there. Here's your S&P intra-day support and resistance targets.

Thursday, February 5, 2009

Markets Reverse Losses, ANR Long Up 16%+ Today!

Central Banks Cut Rates, US Futures Fall

Good Morning! Early this morning the Central Bank of England cut its rates to 1% and the ECB decided to leave their rate at 2% but we all know its probably going to come down from there later on. As a result the GBP is showing some strength while the EUR is falling against the dollar. Should be an interesting day for the FOREX markets which will need a day or two to figure out how to price in all these interest rate changes. As for US stocks, the futures are pointing downward, nothing really outlandish but still a negative sentiment. As you can see I posted the S&P support and resistance targets. Yesterday they were dead on for the intra-day reversal. Which helped members lock in some profits on our new trades. Again we need to watch the 8,000 level on the DOW as the our "line in the sand" for the next move. Happy Trading!

Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Bearz Fight Back And Push DOW Down 1.5% After Eary Gains

522,000 Jobs Cut In January, Obama Plays Invisible Hand

Good morning! As everyone has probably already seen, US companies cut more than half a million jobs in January. Which to the surprise of everyone was a lower job cut number than expected leading the futures higher this morning. After thinking about it, you realize that all those poeple are not going to be buying goods and services nor paying their bills anytime in the near future. And the fact remains that this will only begin to compound their problems and the economy.

Now, regarding Obama's pay cap for executives I can see it going both ways (more one than the other but I'll let you decide that). The first arguement is that it does prevent the over excessive salaries for horribly run companies which frankly should have been let to fail. On the other hand, the main reason that executives put their time and money into a company (and believe me they put more of these in than most people think) is mainly because in the past they have been incentivized to made the company as profitable and successful as physicall possible. As such, the more the company grew, the higher thier bonuses and pay structure was as a result. Its economics 101. Now that we have salary caps I think we are going to see a lot of our countries best business minds leave the industry.

S&P intra-day support and resistance levels.

Tuesday, February 3, 2009

S&P Rallies 1.5%+ After Heavy Flow Of Earnings

This market continues to amaze me each and everyday. I thought we would for sure be knocking at the 8,000 door today but not break through it like we did. Still, I remain hesitant that this is a mere short term (or even one day) correction in the broader downtrend move. I'm not going to argue that we are very over-sold, but the health of the economy is still terrible. As for my portfolio, I made some big moves today as members know. While I still remained fairly hedge, I have accumulated some rather large positions in anticipation of a major market move over the next couple of weeks. Whether the bullz or bearz take over is irrelevant; I'll be ready for the move. As I said last night, we are approaching the time when you have to start jumping back into the muddy water...

Banks And Brokers Feel More Pain As Everyone Watchs 8,000 On DOW

Okay, so futures are swinging between gains and losses this morning as more stimulus buzz is balanced by economic disappointments left and right. Not much to say about today's movements exec pt that closing above 8,000 is critical for the DOW to get even slightly bullish on the indexes. For those of you looking to make a long trade if we sell off today, here are the S&P intra-day support and resistance targets. Happy Trading!

Monday, February 2, 2009

DOW Breaks 8,000 Level, Now What?

The markets finally broke below 8,000 on fairly hard selling today. If history repeats itself we could see another huge rally tomorrow (like those of October and November) as we do remain very oversold short-term. Still, closing below 8,000 cannot be good for this market's health. So with all this volatility where do we invest our hard earned money? The simple answer is to focus on areas and stocks that continue to experience huge bullish or bearish moves, like gold and oil. Now, they are not going to reverse overnight of course. So, if you are looking to make millions in one day you need to re-read some trading books. However, making educated trades based on odds and risk management will absolutely put some money in your pockets this year. I know I say it all the time, but I can't stress enough how important it is to be patient as a trader. If have an itch to make trades each day just to say you are a "day trader" then by all means, throw your money down the toilet, it will be much quicker. Everyone else, follow me to the promise land...

Saturday, January 31, 2009

January Effect Absent As Markets Fall 7.5%, But There's Still Money Out There

Okay, so that age old theory that January is usually a more profitably month turned out to be wrong this time around. Naturally, we all (myself included) were expecting an Obama rally as hope and optimism flooded the market, but we got the complete opposite. Once again, you cannot trade on hopes, dreams, and what you hear in the media. Successful traders watch the charts and trade the odds. Still, even though we have fallen so much, there are still amazing short and long trades out there for the taking. I have narrowed down a very long list (only the best saved for members of course) where money is going to be made over the next couple of months. Markets cannot move in one direction forever, so we had all better prepare ourselves for the next move when ever it decides to come. After sifting through hundreds of charts the last two days, I have put together a very comprehensive Trading Video which you can watch below. It's a little on the long side and I apologize for that, but I needed to get everything in before next week and month for that matter.

I'm happy to say that the popularity of this site has grown much more than I originally expected which is fantastic. What had started out as a mere part-time hobby to keep old trading buddies informed and up to date has turned into an amazing community of traders and investors! As such, I am still committed to increasing the quality of experience for my members and their successful trading development. So, I suggest you sign up for a membership now if you catch my drift...

Friday, January 30, 2009

Fourth Quarter GDP Falls Less Than Expected 5.5% To 3.8%...We Still Contracted!

Good Morning! If you didn't watch last night's trading video I suggest you do so first! As you probably already heard, GDP for the fourth quarter fell 3.8% which was ironically enough BETTER than the expected 5.5% by economists. As such, futures are pointing slightly higher. But the fact remains that we shrank! We didn't expand and we sure didn't shrink just a little bit; we are falling off the edge very fast here. Still, it's always up to the markets (which usually look ahead not behind) to determine where we are going next. Since I started trading, I've always found that because the markets are pricing in the road ahead not the one behind, usually when we start getting the worst news is when things begin to turn around. I'm not saying that this will happen overnight and we will rally from here, but when everyone thinks we are headed down is just when we start to rally big! As promised, here are the S&P support and resistance targets. As a note, we need to hold the 835 level if we see any sell off today. If we break that then we are headed to 800 fairly fast. Happy Trading!

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Didn't See That One Coming...Bullz Win Yesterday, Bearz Win Today

Markets Gave Up All They Got Yesterday, And Then Some

So much for a minor sell off that I was expecting. I guess there this market is just too sick at the moment to put together a huge rally out of this bear market bottom. And to be honest, I again found my portfolio fairly neutral today instead of having huge profits from my shorts. Still, I am glad members and I sold out of (OIH) yesterday because it was down nearly 4% today. I have a lot of charts to look through before the video tonight (including gold at the request of some members). I'll be back later with a big wrap up video as we try to digest what happened today and where we are going next in this extremely volatile market...

Profit Taking Likely Today As Futures Give Up Some Gains

As I had mentioned on last night's Trading Video, we should see a modest sell off today as most institutions are going to take some profits off the table before the next (hopeful) leg up in this intermediate rally for the bullz. So, all in all it should be a fairly quiet day for once which gives me time to look over many more of my charts searching for the best trades out there. Oil has also dropped nearly 3% this morning as of this writing. Thank goodness I advised members to take profits on our (OIH) long position yesterday which locked in nearly a 12% return in a week or so. Not bad for a counter-trend oil trade these days! As usual, here is the S&P support and resistance targets for today. I don't think we will get to any of these, but if we do you all will be ready. Remember that yesterday's levels were almost perfect (only 1 point off) for an intra-day retracement...

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Markets Rally 3%+ On House Bailout Plan

Click this link to view the TRADING VIDEO!

Wells Fargo Reports First Loss, Futures Gain On Bank Bailout Plan

Good morning Traders! First, if you didn't watch last night's Trading Video I suggest you start with that. As I mentioned in the video, I think we might be in for the rally to continue in a strong way today. However, there is a fair amount of overhead resistance as you can see on my S&P support and resistance levels posted below. If you are short going into today I suggest you tighten up stops and let your longs keep your portfolio afloat for now. There will come a time when we can re-short and make some great returns on the next leg down. As far as the big bailout plan that everyone is talking about, I really don't think it's going to fix our problems anytime soon. We still need to get through all this "bad inventory" before we can actually move forward with confidence. But, who said we couldn't profit from market movements in the mean time? Happy Trading!

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Markets Rally 1% On Earnings News And Stimulus Hopes And Dreams

Word of the week: Volatility. I honestly become more and more amazed at how much volatility there is in the markets these past few weeks. For those who have been lucky enough to make money off of every single rally and sell-off, congrats to you. As I tapped my network of other traders, there is a general consensus that there will be a nice rally coming soon and that being patient with your trades will make you so much money in the coming weeks. As for my portfolio I still remain hedged for both directions, though my long Oil and short dollar strategy is doing very well. Please check out the new Trading Video below...

Click this link to view the Trading Video!

Monday, January 26, 2009

If That Was Our Rally, Watch Out Below!

Talk about a weak rally today and an overall victory of sorts for the bearz. Granted the news coming out of America's largest companies about job cuts was pretty bad but come on bullz. I thought they might have more left in them. Today we formed was would look like a very clean shooting star pattern on the S&P and can very close to my target resistance level from this morning. However, the problem is that the pattern didn't come at the end of an uptrend, which is how they appear in Trader Heaven. Still, the fact that we formed a long upper shadow is telling us that the market is rejecting higher levels with added selling pressure. And, I don't mention this much, but the MACD and Stochastics have started to clearly signal an oversold reversal.

Commodities are forming the same type of set up as the overall indexes with today's candle pattern. The CRX below is also right under it's Fib retracement level that is acting as resistance for now. Still, I remain fairly bullish on Oil. Dollar weakness should also help as our FOREX trades did VERY well today.

My strategy remains the same; slowly move down stops on Shorts and start accumulating Longs for the next move upward. Let's face it everyone, we are in a funky mode right now with the markets. Nobody is really making money yet. But, you have to stay focused! Don't let these little daily moves disrupt your overall game plan. Penitence is extremely valuable in this market!

Futures Bounce Between Gains, CAT Cuts Jobs And Earnings Outlook

This a time in history when some will survive and others will fail. You can see just what I mean with news from three of the biggest companies announcing completely different items. (CAT) is going to cut nearly 20,000 jobs and cut its 2009 profit outlook. At the same time (HD) is also going to cut 7,000 jobs, freeze salaries, and exit the expo business. Now the good news company (PFE) Pfizer, which is going to make another huge acquisition of Wyeth for $86 Billion. Clearly you can see why the markets are having a hard time digesting all this news.

As usual, I have posted the S&P intra-day support and resistance targets below. I cannot stress enough how important it is to use these levels in your trading strategy! As we reach each level, you should be making bets for 1 t0 2 day reversals. Naturally, at the more overstretched levels you can make higher value trades.

I think that very soon we will see a dramatic move in the markets, whether it's led by the bullz or the bearz is unknown. If you are not a member, I suggest you sign up soon to take advantage of these great trades and before the membership price goes up (more on that later this week). Happy Trading!

Sunday, January 25, 2009

After This Week's Volatility, Is There Light At The End Of The Tunnel?

Hard question to answer these days huh? While we really haven't seen any economic factors that would lead us to think we are going to climb out of this hole anytime soon, we have fallen so far and so fast, that bottom-feeders are starting to get hungry again. Still, let's face some facts about the health of our economy. First, we are attempting to solve our financial problems rooted in debt with more (albeit less expensive for now) debt. Second, we are still of the school that just because we are Americans means that we are guaranteed to get paid higher wages for doing a job that someone else overseas will do for 1/10th of the cost. Finally, we resolve to continue and blame others for our own greed (myself included).

At the end of the day it will be a slow and painful climb out of this hole, but we will recover! America is still a young and determined country will many years of success ahead of her. It's natural to have these pull-backs and recessions in a healthy economy. The only thing I am worried about is that we are not attempting to solve these problems in a way that will produce another bull market anytime soon.

Now, back to the charts. We are at a vey interesting point in the markets; break-point. If we hold the support levels from here we could rally quite well over the next few weeks. But, a break hard below these levels and we are headed for pain and suffering...

Friday, January 23, 2009

The Selling Is Not Over Yet...GE Profit Dives 43%

Let's face it, this market is volatile; point blank. Still, I woke up this morning expecting to see futures relatively tame instead of the nearly 2% slump they are currently in. And really its no surprise give the absolutely horrible earnings numbers from GE, one of the biggest companies on the planet. In my video last night I had mention that after yesterday's rebound (if you want to call it that) was turning me more and more short term bullish on the index's. I guess I can throw that perspective out the door! If we see a big sell off and actually close down today without any mid-day rally then I think the blood will start running in the streets again as we search for a NEW low past those of October and November.

I remain relatively hedged in my portfolio. Again, I did mention last night on the Trading Video that members and I had picked up some more shorts and thank god we did. Should prove to be an incredibly interesting day! Happy Trading!

Thursday, January 22, 2009

Swing, Swing, Swing Goes The Markets...Where Will It Go

Talk about volatility in the markets. I could honestly say that nearly three times today I thought we were headed in completely different directions. And after nearly 15 years following the markets day and night, they still amaze me at how unpredictable they can become. No matter what, the markets always reconfirm that they are in the drivers seat; not us. Therefore, I have said in the past, we must trade with the odds and look out for the unexpected at all times. Please watch the video below tonight for commentary and FOREX updates!

Click this link to view the Trading Video!

More Jobs Cuts From UBS And Toyota, Futures Point Lower

Good Morning everyone! I have been up pretty much all nice watching some FOREX markets that I was expecting were going to move much more than they actually did. I guess sometimes the early bird doesn't catch the worm after all. Still, we have some more job cuts coming down the line from Toyota and UBS which are two of the biggest companies around. This makes me think that if these huge multi-national companies are cutting jobs, what are the smaller companies who don't have as great of access to funding going to do with their employees? Moreover, reports are out that Capital One and Amex profit will decline sharply with consumer defaults. While this really comes as no surprise to folks, it still should be taken as just another warning sign.

I guess we will see what the jobs numbers tell us today. As usual the everyone is expecting horrible numbers, so unless we see numbers way out of estimates ranges, I think the market has already priced in some of this data. Below you will find the chart of the S&P with today's intra-day support and resistance levels. Happy Trading!

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Markets Rally 4%+ As Bullz Fight Back Into Position

What a rally today huh? The bullz took back nearly everything they gave up yesterday to the bearz. With a movement and strength like this I am getting more bullish on the markets. In general, I haven't given up my overall bearish sentiment, but frankly today's actions can't be ignored. As I have mentioned before, my portfolio was pretty neutral (slightly bearish actually) going into today. Since I am a big believer in continuously moving down stops on my shorts, members and I have been slowly picking up some long positions this week to hedge for any upside movement.

So, as you can probably tell, my plan was to ride down the sell-off on the backs of my shorts (while moving down my stops to lock in profits) and buying in on some longs to prepare for the upside movement. With today's huge move to the upside, I was stopped out of some shorts (at healthy profits) and was able to see my longs gain accordingly. Now, my plan is to start riding this leg up while moving up my stops on my longs and when the time is right; start shorting once more for another sell-off (which will happen sooner than later). Notice a pattern here? You should.

I've also got some FOREX trades coming down the pipe, so you had better become a member before it's too late. There is absolutely much more money to be made out there which I plan on taking advantage of while the typical investor is sitting scared on the sidelines!

More Banks On The Verge Of Nationalization...Futures Point Higher

Good Morning! Looks like Barclays of England might just become another nationalized bank during this whole mess. As you can see, we are not the only ones taking a hit from this recession. Still, we have seen the futures rise this morning in preparation of a nice bounce possibly today. I still remain skeptical, but as I said on my Trading Video last night, I have a portfolio that is hedge for any upside movement. We will have to see if we actually form any sort of bullish signal on either the DOW or S&P Chart and a close above 8,100 to really get long this market. Again, if you didn't watch the trading video last night, I suggest you watch it as I have laid out my predictions for both the indexes and the FOREX markets.

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

I Thought There Was Supposed To Be An "Obama Rally" Today?

There you go folks, no Obama Rally today. In fact, we not only didn't rally, but rather sold off nearly 4% on the heals of last week's 5%+ sell-off. So, what does this say about where we are going during Obama's administration...really nothing at all. Like I said this morning, Obama actually has to have some time behind the wheel before the markets really start to adjust to his style and forecasts. Having said that, the outlook over the short term is not very pretty. Unless we get a big bounce tomorrow or the next day, we are in for a decline down to 7,500 on the DOW and a re-test of the recent lows. Let's face it, 8,000 was a very important psychological level for the markets and has been breached. I urge you to watch the Trading Video below for the complete analysis and FOREX predictions!

Click this link to view the Trading Video!

Oil Slides On Dollar Rally, Futures Point Lower On Inauguration Day

Good morning everyone! As of this writing the futures are pointing to a lower open after Oil fell below $33 a barrel and the dollar gained just about 1% against the EURO. I know that a lot of people out there, especially news-casters, have been positioning themselves for an "Obama Rally" today. Well, the simple fact is that we might not see it happen. And, to be honest the more I thought about it over the weekend, people have been talking about this rally for over a month now. So, do you think that the markets already had the expectations of a rally priced in? Probably more than we all think right now. Still, it's what President Obama does after he is sworn in that will make a different in how the markets move. It should prove to be an interesting day both historically and for the traders like us who won't be in DC for the "Big Event" which is costing us $150M (or four times Bush's inauguration) during one of the most economic hard times for our country. Since, I'm from outside DC I know first hand how crazy it is here, and frankly I'm disappointed in it. Regardless, let's all stick to watching the charts for any indication of long term trend development. Happy Trading!

Friday, January 16, 2009

Markets Pull Off 2nd Mid-Day Rally, Ignore Banking Concerns

This week sure has proven volatile. From one minute to the next we really didn't know if we were headed for more bottom fishing or another bear market rally. Still, buyers seemed to come in just at the right time for the second day in a row leading the markets to about a 1% gain. My predictions for next week are still up in the air, with a short-term rally as the more likely candidate given how over-sold we have been this week. Still, we should look to the charts for guidance. Please check out the new Trading Video below or click the link below that recaps this crazy week and sheds light on what may come in the future for the markets, oil, and the financials.

Click this link to view the Trading Video!

Being short this week definitely helped. Members and I have enjoyed a very nice return on all our trades this month; closing some out at more than a 25% return. Having made such great money on this recent market slide, we are starting to tilt our positions in selective stocks. So, don't forget to sign up for a trading membership to take advantage of these great opportunities!

Futures Shrug Off CPI And Poor Bank Earnings

Good Morning! First, if you didn't get a chance to watch last night's Trading Video, I suggest you do so first thing this morning. Having said that, we are watching the futures push higher this morning (up about 1% as of this writing) following what most would say is poor bank earnings and CPI data. Still, we always want to trade with the odds in our favor. Here is the S&P support and resistance chart for intra-day trades. Again, these levels are very important and should be watched by all traders for likely reversals. Remember that the purple levels are the area with 99% odds of a one day reversal. Happy Trading!

Thursday, January 15, 2009

DOW Support Level Holds After Early Sell-Off...More Financial Stress Ahead?

Good Evening everyone! Well, it looks like the my targeted support level held firm today after an early morning scare that sent the DOW below 8,000. The main catalyst today was Bank of America (BAC) news that it would need more money from the government to help with it's purchase/merger of Merrill. I guess we will find out exactly how bad (BAC) is doing when they announce earnings this Friday. My question for the government is this: When do we run out of life boats for all these companies drowning in debt? I really don't see an end in sight to all these bailouts, which I think will really hurt the market long term in many different ways. Still, we look to the charts for directions as the bullz and bearz battled hard today....Please watch the Trading Video for more commentary and analysis.

Click this link to view the Trading Video!

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

DOW Target Reached After 3% Sell-Off...Where Do You Trade Next?

Wow, talk about a six day sell-off! The markets have been getting hammered lately which shows how weak things really are out there. I guess all those bullz are running back home with more fear about financials and overall consumer spending. Regardless, we have successfully reached the targeted support level on the DOW that I had talked about last Friday. Please check out the Trading Video below with the complete analysis and new Trading Ideas!

Click this link to view the Trading Video!

Don't forget to sign up for a Membership before the price goes up!

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

OIL, GOLD Continue Slid, Long Reversal Odds Increasing

Good morning everyone! Pre-market futures are slightly lower today. As usual, here is your S&P support and resistance levels for intra-day trades on the index. I just want to make one note about the emails I'm getting from everyone advising me to go short. To put it bluntly and straight forward, we have already fallen too far too fast in the short term to even consider a short trade today on the indexes. If we do in fact close down today again, that would be the 3rd consecutive close down after nearly a 10% sell-off on the S&P. So, let me reverse the scenario, if you were long for 3 consecutive days and made 10%, wouldn't you think about closing out your position and taking some profits? Probably would, huh? It's the same type of thinking that we are up against now. Bearz from last week are now realizing that we have made a very good move down and are thinking of taking some profits off the table. Additionally, we are approaching my DOW support level that I mentioned over the weekend on the Trading Video below. All and all, don't get caught up in the heard mentality, stick to the charts and listen to what they are telling you. Happy Trading!

Monday, January 12, 2009

Taking Profits On GOLD Shorts...GG Down 8% Just Today

Good morning! I'm starting to take profits on some of my gold shorts from last week. Mainly (GG) which is down 6% today alone and over 15% since I advised members to short last week around $32.50. Our other gold shorts are still very much in the money and we have moved down our stops accordingly to lock in profits: don't get greedy out there! Here is a chart of (GG) which reached our 50-day moving average target. To see our complete trade, please watch the Trading Video below from last week (just below this post).

Friday, January 9, 2009

Dow Breakout Complete, Markets Fall More Than 1.5%, Trading Videos Back!

I guess the jobs data wasn't as priced in as most people were expecting. With nearly 7.2% unemployment, I think we are all starting to realize the simple but harsh reality; when people don't have a job, they don't have money, and when they don't have money, they don't buy anything! So, what does this mean for the markets over the next couple of weeks? Trading ideas and my short-term market forecast are in the video below!

Click the link below to watch the Trading Video!

Jobless Rate Jumps To 7.2%, Futures Swing Between Gains And Losses

As you probably already heard this morning, US companies cut nearly 524,000 jobs in December. Irronically enough, the futures are little changed and are swinging between gains and losses. Still, we will stick to the odds as ususal. Check the chart below for today's levels.

Thursday, January 8, 2009

More Bad Jobs And Retail Data, Futures Lower, New S&P 500 Targets

Good Morning! Just wanted to get this chart up for everyone before the market opens in 30mins. As you can see I have adjusted my support and resistance targets accordingly for today following a nearly 3% drop yesterday. If we do in fact make it lower today I will be looking to go long (SPY) around 890. This level has very good odds for a one to two day reversal. I don't really see us getting down 863 as it would be more than a 5% drop from this level alone, so 890 is our target today. Please keep checking the blog for updated posts.

Wednesday, January 7, 2009

After 3% Drop We Reached The Break Point - Raise The Flag Formation

What a day huh? I'm glad I kept some of my index puts as they were very profitable today. For a change I want to take a look at the DOW as its forming one of the cleaner flag formations. These flag formations are very powerful trading tools and can be extremely important for your support and resistance levels. As you can see we have again reached the apex of the flag meaning that a breakout in either direction will show the new direction for the time being. And really it make sense. We have come up so far from the bottom that if we go higher we will get some renewed faith and buyers. Likewise, if we start to fall again, everyone will sell off predicting the next big fall. If we break below this level (which I was I am expecting somewhat) then I think the next area of support is in the green region on the graph. As always, check the daily support and resistance levels for intra-day trades.

Note: This month has already been great for members and there is much more profits on the horizon. Don't forget to sign up for a trading membership...and frankly it's dirt cheap for what you get.

I'm very happy that (YUM) has already worked out nicely as I've locked in a profit after the very first day. As you remember, members and I shorted this stock near the top of its move yesterday and are now nearly 5% in the money after only two days. I still think this head and shoulders retracement has much more room to move down to around the $29 level or lower.

Real quick I just wanted to take a look at the commodities index which enjoyed a nice run up over the last couple of weeks but broken down today. Once again, you can see how it came right up to its Fib fan level and retraced. We will look for some sort of support around 500 for the (CRX) index in the coming days.
And now some FOREX. The EURO below has just been crazy over the last couple of weeks. After a huge run up and eventual retracement back near its 50-day moving average, we are now sitting right above support from the Fib fan levels around 1.35. From here we should see a move back near the 200-day moving average. If we break the Fib fan support, the next levels of support should at the Fib retracement level at 1.305 or the 50-day moving average.
Finally we need to look at the CAD. A while back I had suggested that this was looking pretty bearish as it followed underneath its 50-day moving average. Well, as predicted it broke down heard falling nearly 400 pips since. I have highlighted a green support area on the graph which should prove firm as we continue the move down.
That wraps it up for today. See everyone tomorrow!

Futures Decline On ADP Jobs Report And Earnings

Good Morning All! Pre-market futures are heavily down this morning on the ADP jobs report that showed that US companies cut nearly 700K jobs in December of last year (that's right we are in 2009 remember). To add to the bad news floating around out there, earnings haven't been all that great. Time Warner posted a loss after a $25B writedown of AOL, and Intels Revenues decline nearly 23%. So needless to say, we are getting back to reality out there that things aren't all that peachy in the economy. As usual, here is the S&P support and resistance targets for today. Please notice that the support levels are much closer than usual. This is because after such a large run up, the chances of a one-day blow-out sell off are pretty slim. Still, I'll be waiting for the lower of the two (917 or lower) to exit my index puts.

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Fed Meeting Notes That "Substaintial Economic Risk" Lead To Slashing Rates

Other than the Fed meeting notes that came out at 2:00pm, today was pretty uneventful on the whole. Before I get into the charts I just want to point out that I am becoming more and more short-term bearish. Let's look at the DOW for a change. As you can see we have make a small shooting star pattern that exactly touched the Fib fans lines today. Given that we have come so far so fast just in these last couple of days, unless we break above 9,250 then we could be heading down back to test the lows again in the coming months. One note though, there is a lot of speculation about this Obama stimulus package and how it will effect the economy, so getting to 9,250 could prove easy to accomplish. Regardless, let's all just watch and listen to the charts as our best source of trading signals.

As I had mentioned last night, (OIH) has been on a roll lately. Again while this is definitely over-bought to the upside, the volume leads us to look for a bearish candle pattern before we decide to go short on this stock.

(TLT) was a short that members and I closed out today at the open. As you may remember, when treasury rates were at zero this ETF went up almost parabolic in an unsustainable movement. As such, our short made nearly $10 in just 11 trading days!

(YUM) is one of my recent favorite shorts. Members got a chance to short this today and made just about 1% today alone on this short. As you can see in the chart below, (YUM) formed a very clean Head and Shoulders pattern which it has successfully re-traced back to its neckline. This is a clean and low-risk short trade which will be very profitable over the next couple of months.

As always I appreciate you stopping by and taking the time to read about my trading ideas. Please email me with any of your own ideas as most of my ideas this week came from readers. Happy Trading Ya'll!

Oil Climbs On OPEC Cuts, Dollar Gains, Futures Rally On Stimulus Plan

Good morning all! Future are up modestly this morning after a bunch of economic stimulus packages are expected to help spur the economy out of this recession. Moreover, there is even more talk about the Fed attempting to narrow the spread between consumer, corporate and treasury interest rates. As per the chart below, I have again added the support and resistance targets for today's intra-day S&P trades. We didn't reach any of the significant levels yesterday so I decided to move up my stops on my index puts into "small profit" range. If we move up substantially today, they will get stopped out in a profit and we will look to play these support and resistance levels again (if and only if they are reached). Happy Trading!

Monday, January 5, 2009

Freeze Bernard! But He Still Madoff With $1 Million...Investor's Take Back Some Gains

The markets has a slightly down following a three day rally that took the S&P above the 930 level. Losses were paired today by gains in Oil as it rose nearly 4% as (OIH) saw significant volume today. Again, I don't mean to harp on all the investigations, but apparently Madoff tried to transfer assets after an account freeze order by a federal judge. I can't get over how stupid he is for attempting this, but I guess when desperation calls for it, people do crazy things.

First, taking a look at the S&P, we can see that we didn't fall down to the 897 level where I would have closed out all of my puts. Still, the harmani cross that was formed today with the candlesticks leads me to think there may be a little more downside here tomorrow. However, being the safe trader that I am, I moved down my stops into a very small profit range to protect myself.
Earlier I mentioned (OIH). As you can see in the chart there was huge volume in this one today as it broke it's 50-day moving average. I am going to wait for a small pull back on this one before I think about going long. Notice that we have almost gone straight up from $66 to $82 and you can almost bet that there will be come profit taking here soon.
Finally, I want to go over some idea I got from fellow traders. (PFE) is a good looking short call with a nice candle pattern today as it hit its Fib resistance level in orange. If it moves below it's 200-day moving average I would consider a short down to around $16.75.
(FSLR) is always a favorite of everyone for some reason. Here you can see that it's making its way to the Fib retracement level at $170 but has begun to stall out a bit, and rightfully so after a run from a low of nearly $87. I think this stock is going to be a great short play later on in the week as I am waiting for it to form a bearish candle pattern first.
Finally, let's look at (CLNE). A bunch of people have emailed me about this one lately. Now this is a great looking short play. Hopefully everyone didn't short it on Friday last week as it made another 13% run up today alone. Looking at the chart you can see that it hit is Fib retracement level almost perfectly today and has run up over 100% since it's lows in November. My one concern is the volume today (over 1.1 Million shares). So, let's all wait for a bearish pattern to form before we jump in hands over feet. If this breaks, it's still going to have plenty of room to move and plenty of time to get in and make a profit.
Thanks for all the great stock ideas these past couple of days everyone! Keep 'em coming!

Closing EUR/GBP Short At 350+ Pip Profit!

I'm closing out my short play on the (EUR/GBP) at a great profit. In the graph below you can see that I advised everyone to go short around the green level and now we have come down very far very fast. It's time to not be greedy and take profits on this one.

Futures Point To Lower Open, Dollar Raises, More Political Coruption

Good Morning! Before, I jump into the chart for today's trades, I just wanted to point out how frustrated I am with all the political scandals going on at times like these. Just yesterday Bill Richardson withdrew his nomination as cabinet secretary of commerce because he is under a Grand Jury Investigation. Really? Guilty or not, this is getting to become more of a curious than a government, and I hope that all these guys get flushed out soon so we can all move on from this financial mess.

Moving On. Pre-market futures are pointing to a lower open as I had predicted last Friday and all through the weekend. My index puts should do very well today with this modest sell-off. I will be taking profits around 987 if we make it there for sure as the odds of a bounce from there are fairly modest. But, if for some reason we start to rally again today (could happen folks), and if we reach the 956 level, you can be sure I will be going 100% short. Things would be way over-bought at that level and four consecutive closes up would beg traders to short/close long profits. As always, here are my support and resistance levels for intra-day plays on the S&P500.

I have some great trading ideas for today that I will be executing so members be on the look out. If your not a member, your going to miss out big time...

Saturday, January 3, 2009

Intermediate Trendlines Broken Last Week...Will They Hold?

After looking at many hundred charts again today, I have a couple of comments on the few down trend breaks that occured last friday. First, I just want to mention that I took a fairly large index put position at the close in anticipation of a lower close either on Monday or Tuesday. Now, looking at the (SPY) you can see that it clearly broke above a descending trendline. What we have to watch for now is that it's bumping up again fairly strong resistance at its Fib fan level in blue. Additionally, we have had three very strong up days and I would guess that most investors are going to at least take some profits here shortly. What we need to look for is for the (SPY) to successfully re-trace back to its Fib retracement level and then keep raising.

Oil has a great day last week to start off the year. As you can see (which almost looks identical to the (SPY) chart), (OIH) has broken its downtrend resistance level. Still, we are right up at both the Fib fan level and the 50-day moving average. If we hold this level we can look to go long here with stops around $71-72. I personally think oil is still due for a very nice rebound given that the dollar has gotten so weak recently...

As always, please check back tomorrow for more updates and trading ideas. The Forex markets should be interesting tomorrow when they open as we really kick off the new year! Happy Trading!

Friday, January 2, 2009

2009 Starts With A 3%+ Rally In The Markets

Let's get one thing straight with all these ultra-bull folks out there in the media; one day doesn't make nor define a new bull trend. Could 2009 be a great year for the bullz; more than likely after the 40% drop last year. But, at the same time, I still think we are right smack in the middle of a bear market rally which shouldn't last past February at the latest. From there, I think there is more downside in store for us. Whether we break the October/November lows is still in question but all things considered, we are not going straight up from here until next year.

Okay, with that said, I decided to buy some SPY puts this afternoon following three nice up days in the markets. After three consecutive closes up, the chances of at least a one day reversal are fairly high, not to mention that we closed near my 930 resistance level on the S&P.

So, just to clarify, I am predicting at least one down day either Monday or Tuesday next week before I exit these puts. As always you can follow my trades by subscribing to a Trading Subscription on the right hand side. We've already had some very profitable FOREX trades this year! Happy Trading in 2009!

Time To Short The EUR/GBP Again

I shorted the EUR/GBP last week around .97 and took profits right above .951. But, I think it's time to short this again if it breaks .955. The chart is below and is really over-bought as you can tell from the parabolic move upward. Sign up for a membership to see what else I'm trading going into next week!

Thursday, January 1, 2009

Happy New Year! Results For 2008!

Another year in the books! 2008 is going to be one of those years we all look back and think about how much has really happened; from the stock market, politics, sports, world events, etc. I think everyone has high expectations for 2009 (including myself) but we will all have to just wait and see how much deeper this recession could get. In the mean time, here are the 2008 market returns...

Dow Jones Industrial Average Down 32%
S&P 500 Index Down 37% (ouch)
NASDAQ 100 Index Down 40%
With numbers like these its almost hard to believe that things could get worse during 2009, yet we must all remain alert and listen to the charts. If there is one thing I have learned from technical analysis and trading all these years is that prices can go down much further than you ever expected (and likewise can go much higher than you ever expected in bull markets). I hope everyone has already laid out their 2009 trading goals!