Monday, December 29, 2008
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
As you can see below I posted the support and resistance targets for the S&P. We are actually sitting right above the 862 level which has pretty decent odds to go long, but I am going to wait until the 845 level is reached before I go long with a large position. Remember I had mentioned last night on the video that the chances are increasing for an up day here after two consecutive closes down on the S&P. So, if we do see some sort of X-Mas rally here today I will be going short at 897 without a doubt. That much of a rally on a day like today would present a great opportunity for the bearz.
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Monday, December 22, 2008
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Friday, December 19, 2008
Let's face it, these last three days have been pretty boring. Where are the 200 or 500 point intra-day swings of October and November. I guess we getting back to the slower days for a little while. I have posted some pretty great trading ideas in the video so check them out!
Click on the link below to view the Trading Video!
Good Morning! I'm glad to have gotten a bunch of emails from everyone telling me how excited they are about these new Trading Videos! I hope they continue to help everyone become more profitable traders! The EUR/USD has given up most of it's gains over the last two days which has been great for my members. The nearly 500 pip move was very quick and I hope you were involved. Pre-market futures were negative but have turned positive follow auto-bailout news. Please watch the video below as I have given new S&P intra-day trading targets as well as commentary on my great EUR/USD short play.
Click the link below to see the video!
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Well, we saw a nice late day sell off today that faced little to no opposition by the bullz to hold these higher levels. While we didn't make it far enough to place a long intra-day position, I think we could get there tomorrow if more bad news arises from the credit markets. Check out the video below for more trading ideas and today's commentary!
Click the link below to view the Trading Video!
I'm happy to share with everyone my first blog video post. I have spent a considerable amount of time to get this system up and running and am very exctied to see how it's going to work and help everyone become better traders.
Click the link below to see the video from today!
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Following the decision, the dollar weakened significantly. Take a look at the CHF which I got out of my short position around 1.17 and wish I could have held on for this big move today. Notice that the move basically stopped at the Fib retracement level and we may see a small bounce from here before we go back down.
The EUR has gone gang-busters recently. It broke past its Fib fan level and went straight for its Fib retracement level, hit it intra-day and fell back down. I would expect this to fall back down to 1.35 or so before moving higher.
As I've said time and time again, UDN and UUP are great ways to play the dollar using ETF's. I bought in around $24.50 a while back and am still holding on to these positions. While the are in the green very nicely, I think the increased volume will help push this up even move as the dollar weakens over the next couple of months. Again, this is a great way to hedge dollar weakness.
Tomorrow will bring more news and more volatility without a doubt. Let's all get some sleep and wake up ready to take on another day of major market moves. Don't forget to sign up for my Trading Membership before the prices go up! That's right, I've decided to increase the subscription fees for new members due to all the increased time and effort I'm putting into helping my members trade...so better sign up now!
Monday, December 15, 2008
Below are my targets for the SPX for today and the week. As always, weekly targets are in purple and daily levels are in green. Note: At each higher or lower level my bet for a reversal (either long or short) goes up. So, for instance, if we rally to 912 I will place a small trade for a daily reversal. But, if we blow past that level to 934, I will place a bigger bet for a daily reversal since we have moved so far. I think posting these levels could give you great targets for daily trades on the SPX.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Note: I've got a bunch of new ideas for tomorrow, but you'll have to sign up for a membership to get these. I have been getting a tons of emails asking for advice about this stock and that stock. As I have been telling people, you can sign up to follow my trades. After all, it's cheap and I wouldn't want to give everything away for free of course. Besides, it's been my experience that free advice worth the price you pay!
Another extremely efficient exit today on my FOREX shorts. Even though the graphs show slightly long lower shadows for today's candle, Members received an email at 1:06pm today advising an exit on these two pairs which coincided almost exactly with the lows today! Wow, can't get better than that everyone!
The CHF was close enough for a one day move to lock in some profits. My target was 1.17 but a move to 1.18 in one day is good enough for anyone.
UA which caused some much discussion is shaping up great! It's down nearly 10% in two days and has acted just as I expected. For educational purposes, notice how yesterday it re-tested the shooting star highs, but the fell short on weak volume.
FCN was one stock I wish I would have made a trade on. I suggested it last week when it was at $55 and by the time I noticed it again yesterday it had already declined over 15%. Hope that some people actual took my advice on this stock. If you look at a longer term view, this company has a lot of room to move to the downside over the next couple of months.
Today was a great day all around. A couple of my positions didn't move as much as others, but they are still showing green across the screen. Happy Trading!
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
UA. The long awaited short that caused quite a bit of commotion on facebook this afternoon among some people. Here is the reasoning behind my short. 1) 9 new highs were created during this move upward in a matter of 13 trading sessions. 2) the shooting star pattern today. 3) a retracement back to the 23% level almost exactly touching the line with today's highs. 4) the weak volume considering the strong move upward. 5) a move back to its 200 day moving average in green.
Granted there is talk about this company being bought out by Nike, but I would have expected the volume to be a little more convincing if everyone is 100% sure of a takeover. Not to mention that any investment bank advising this deal would like the stock to fall more before making an offer. It's run up nearly 60% on this move alone and has now reached irrational levels. So, am I discounting the fact that it could be taken over? No. But what the charts are telling me is that this stock has more likely odds of falling that raising. I'm keeping my stops tight as always to protect me from losses.
BBBY is another one that member's got an email about during the morning and should have made at least 2% already today since. I'm looking for a retracement around $21.50 or 50% of the move up recently. Also, I highlighted the volume to show how it has gotten considerably weaker during the move up which tells us that there is little to no conviction behind the move.
BGC is another nice short I have been talking about for a week now that posted a nice harmani cross/shooting star doji pattern today. Again, we can see that this touched the retracement level almost perfectly today and a move down below $15 should be no problem.
CBRL may move higher up to the draw trendline as I have said before. The volume has been week and you may want to place a short trade here with stops above the recent highs.
FCN made a considerable move downward today nearly 6%. I mentioned this stock last week as a possible short and its moving as I expected.
That's it for tonight folks. Just a note on individual stock requests. I am constantly flooded with emails from people asking me to analyze this stock and that stock. So here's the deal....if I don't post about it or send out an update (for member's only of course) than I'm not interested in it. I hope everyone can see where I'm coming from considering I go through hundreds of charts each day. Happy Trading!
Monday, December 8, 2008
The CHF snapped back lower as I predicted earlier this morning. I have adjusted my stops to lock in the profit right now and still am holding out to a target of 1.17 or just a little lower.
The CAD had another great day following its massive shooting star pattern with a near 300 bip move. I think we might see this pair move back up slightly during an equity market sell off, which might be a great time for some of you out there who missed this to get back in the short side. Target around 1.21 or lower is very reasonable.
BBBY is another great short trade. A rally of nearly four up days in a row have lead me to think this stock will show considerable weakness very quickly. My short term target with my puts is to the $21 level.
CBRL is on my short watch list this week. I was about to short it on Friday but decided to wait and thankfully so considering the 5% jump today. We should all wait for a bearish candle pattern before we go hog wild shorting this as it still may have room to move back near its 200 day moving average.
Tomorrow should be interesting to see how the markets react to the auto bailout which I 100% expect to see in tomorrows news headlines at some point. Will we sell off like the other bailouts or rally up further leading us bearz with another opportunity to short like our life depends on it? Happy Trading!
Saturday, December 6, 2008
Looking at the chart of the DOW here you can see that we are still within the descending wedge formation, but are knocking on the doorstep of an upward breakout. Also, you can see that the shadows are all rejecting lower levels. One caveat to this week's ending was that volume on Friday was fairly weak given the large move. I think that we are going to see a slight sell off early next week before attempting to make to move upward again.
The Commodity Index is sporting a very nice hammer formation. Moreover, it successfully tested the midpoint of the bullish engulfing pattern of last week. My target for this is still around the 475 level.
OIH is still a long of mine that has taken a beating this week, but I am still confident in my price target around $85 or higher. Oil cannot keep falling straight down. It's too unrealistic not to mention that this market needs strong oil to help make the move higher for equities. The hammer formation and high volume are suggesting a nice rally over the next couple of days.
The USD/CAD has been extremely interesting over the last couple of days. Members know that I shorted it around 1.27 on Thursday and again just below the highs around 1.30. The triple top formation is huge here! Notice the bearish engulfing pattern around Nov. 23rd that was confirmed by the shooting star on Friday. My target for this short term is 1.21 and much lower of the next couple of months.
CHF is also another short for my Members. What's interesting about this pair is that when the dollar started to get weaker on Friday and all the other currencies started adjusting, the CHF didn't move that much (if at all really). So, I think this late bloomer is due for a quick and sharp response early next week if the equities rally. My target still remains 1.17 where the moving average and Fib retracement level converge.
Just wanted to highlight a couple of long and short ideas that I sent out on last week. K is a great call right now with great volume and the bullish engulfing pattern. Traveling back to $46 or higher should be very easy for this stock.
BHI is also posting a nice hammer formation and should rally with Oil.
CAM is just under its Fib retracement level which may be a risk for this long, but the bullish engulfing pattern and triple bottom presents a great risk/reward situation for this stock.
Some short ideas down given the markets rally. DHI has rallied up nearly 100% since its recent lows in early Dec. It's also hitting up against strong resistance and cannot maintain this straight up move for that much longer. A $6 target is a very realistic short trade target.
And finally AZO. This has rallied very strong this week but is now bumping up against both its 200 day moving average and its Fib fan levels. Also notice the shooting star pattern from Thursday that hinted at a reversal. My put orders for this didn't go through at the end of the day so I'll have to wait until Monday's open to short this down to $105 or lower.
Okay, I hope all these charts were helpful and give you some good ideas for next week. Happy Trading!
Friday, December 5, 2008
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Below are my support and resistance levels for the S&P. Intra-day are in the green and weekly in the purple. If the jobs numbers are either horrible or surprising good tomorrow we could see these weekly numbers reached very fast, so be prepared.