Monday, December 29, 2008

Oil Raises After Israeli Attacks On Gaza

Good morning everyone! I hope you all had a wonderful and happy holiday. Only 3 more trading days left in 2008 before we attempt to erase what some would consider to be one of the worse financial years. Nevertheless, pre-market futures are pointing slightly higher this morning. Oil seems to been the big focus once again after it moved below $37 a barrel last week. But, with all the trouble in the middle east once again, it seems that supplies may be cut off and production will start to fall behind. As of this writing Oil is up almost 8% or roughly $3/barrel. This week should be interesting as large funds and investors are going to be positioning themselves for the coming year. Whether we see a nice rally or continued selling is fairly unclear, so let's just play the reversal odds as usual okay...Below I posted today's intra-day S&P support and resistance levels for you all. Please email me with any questions. Happy Trading!

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Slow Day In The Markets Give Us Time To Think About Next Year!

Early closing today for the markets left them marginally up after digesting consumer spending and retail traffic data. As I had said earlier this morning, I was expecting a small up day following two consecutive closes down on the S&P. I'll be back tomorrow with a new Trading Video to prepare us for the final leg of 2008...Please watch last night's video if you haven't already!

Happy Holidays Everyone!

Oil Breaks Below $37 On Supply Forecasts...Markets Close Early At 1pm EST

Good Morning everyone! First off, I want to remind everyone that the markets will be closing early today at 1pm EST for the holidays and will also be closed tomorrow. If you didn't get a chance to watch the video last night, you have to check it out as I presented some new trading ideas and a great FOREX trade that is already making money this morning!

As you can see below I posted the support and resistance targets for the S&P. We are actually sitting right above the 862 level which has pretty decent odds to go long, but I am going to wait until the 845 level is reached before I go long with a large position. Remember I had mentioned last night on the video that the chances are increasing for an up day here after two consecutive closes down on the S&P. So, if we do see some sort of X-Mas rally here today I will be going short at 897 without a doubt. That much of a rally on a day like today would present a great opportunity for the bearz.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

X-Mas Plunge Continues As Markets Fall Again On US Home Sales

While there really wasn't that much volume behind the sell-off today, it is worth noting that the markets are starting to react negatively again to bad news. The markets fell for a second day as concern grew that emergency loans won’t save the auto industry, while home prices plunged and the government confirmed the economy shrank the most since 2001 last quarter. The S&P Closed down to 863 which was just 1 point above my target support level I posted this morning. In the video below I went through a new FOREX trading idea as well as some very important patterns shaping up on the Russell 2000. Remember that tomorrow the markets will close at 1pm EST for the Holidays.

Where's The X-Mas Rally? New S&P Intra-Day Targets Posted...

Good Morning! Futures are pointing to a slightly lower open as of this writing. Reports that US home sale probably dropped and consumers are spending less this holiday season are adding to the negative sentiment. As you can see, I have posted the S&P intra-day support and resistance levels below. If you didn't get to watch last night's video, I strongly encourage it to learn how to use these levels to make more profitable trades. Since the pre-market futures are pointing down, I would suggest holding out on going long today unless we reach the 845 level as the 862 level is just way to close to really be that influential intra-day. However, we must note that if we close down again today that would be practically the 5th down day in a row, and the chances of at least one up day would increase.

Monday, December 22, 2008

Stimulus...What Stimulus? Markets Fall On Weak Economic Outlook, GM & Ford Debt Lowered Again!

Well, another day of selling off as we near the end of 2008 and say hello to what should be a very interesting 2009. I find it fairly amusing that so many people think these stimulus packages are going to work overnight. The harsh reality is that they are going to take some time to work their way through the system. Just as medicine doesn't offer an instant cure, so too are we in for a long and possibly painful recovery process. I have posted a new Trading Video below and I urge you to watch it as I have explained how I made two very successful day trades using the support and resistance targets I posted on the S&P earlier this morning.

Click the link below to view the Trading Video!

Central Banks Lower Benchmark Rates Again As Futures Rise Pre-Market!

Good Morning! China's central bank again lowered rates for the fifth time in the last three months to helps it's staggering economy. Additionally, Toyota is predicted to post it's first loss in nearly 71 years on falling car sales and the climbing Yen. As always, I have posted below my support and resistance targets for intra-day plays on the S&P. As you can see, the support levels are much closer than the resistance levels. So, any rally this morning or week needs to make a significant move before I'll jump in and start shorting things again. Remember, that we don't want to make trades just to "make trades." Be patient and wait for the set-ups. This week should be mildly quiet with the holidays but interesting nevertheless. Happy Trading!

Friday, December 19, 2008

Auto-Bailout Sends Markets Down...Get New Trading Ideas For Next Week

Let's face it, these last three days have been pretty boring. Where are the 200 or 500 point intra-day swings of October and November. I guess we getting back to the slower days for a little while. I have posted some pretty great trading ideas in the video so check them out!

Click on the link below to view the Trading Video!

EUR/USD Trade Made Over 500 pips! New S&P Targets!

Good Morning! I'm glad to have gotten a bunch of emails from everyone telling me how excited they are about these new Trading Videos! I hope they continue to help everyone become more profitable traders! The EUR/USD has given up most of it's gains over the last two days which has been great for my members. The nearly 500 pip move was very quick and I hope you were involved. Pre-market futures were negative but have turned positive follow auto-bailout news. Please watch the video below as I have given new S&P intra-day trading targets as well as commentary on my great EUR/USD short play.

Click the link below to see the video!

Thursday, December 18, 2008

GE Causes Late Day Sell-Off, Markets Fall 2% But Could We Go Down More?

Well, we saw a nice late day sell off today that faced little to no opposition by the bullz to hold these higher levels. While we didn't make it far enough to place a long intra-day position, I think we could get there tomorrow if more bad news arises from the credit markets. Check out the video below for more trading ideas and today's commentary!

Click the link below to view the Trading Video!

EUR/USD and USD/CHF Trades...First Blog Video Now Up!

I'm happy to share with everyone my first blog video post. I have spent a considerable amount of time to get this system up and running and am very exctied to see how it's going to work and help everyone become better traders.

Click the link below to see the video from today!

EURO Going Gang-Busters...So Is The USD/CHF!

Wow! I never thought this morning that I would wake up and see these two pairs making such a quick move back to their 200-day moving averages! It's almost unheard of for these to make such drastic moves so fast, but here we are. Take a look at the charts which look insane.
Once these pairs find support they are going to snap back fairly fast before making the move back down again. Let's all be on the look out!

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Could Gold Be Turning?

Here is an interesting short idea. This stock has run up nicely over the last couple of weeks and seems due for a correction back down to around $25.

Shorting The EUR/USD

EUR broke out of its upper bollinger bands level and the MACD and STOCASTICS are way over-bought short term. It's time to short the EUR/USD at 1.44 or higher.

Reverse Dead Cat Bounce....Fed Decision Sets In Today

Good Morning! Pre-market futures are pointing to a lower open today after the huge rally yesterday spurred by the Fed's decision to cut interest rates to practically zero. This comes as no real big surprise following such a huge move as there are going to be profit takers out there when the market opens. As I said yesterday, at the 911 level on the SPX there was a 90%+ chance of a one day reversal, and here we are! So, I plan to close out my shorts following weakness today and will watch my support and resistance levels very closely for a long reversal. 874 seems to be the best level for one day long play. I doubt we will get there today, but if we do I will be going long again. If for some reason we rally mid-day, I will look to go short again at the 933 level and above. I also added some great blog feed goodies to the page for you. Don't forget to sign up for email notices on the right hand side. Please check the graph below for your SPX targets...

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Free Money! Fed Cuts Rates to 0.25% And Markets Rally Big!

Well, I guess that 50 bps rate cut was already priced in during the morning, but we never really expected a cut to practically zero on the Fed Funds Target Rate. Nevertheless, the markets rallied big throughout the end of the day, closing near its highs. Still, I will point out that the SPX closed only 2 points away from my 90% daily reversal target at 911. As such, I entered in some index short positions at the close and I will try to catch some of the profit taking tomorrow or the next day. I also want to point out that the SPX broke above its 50-day moving average. Over the next couple of weeks, a move to 1,000 could be very realistic...

Following the decision, the dollar weakened significantly. Take a look at the CHF which I got out of my short position around 1.17 and wish I could have held on for this big move today. Notice that the move basically stopped at the Fib retracement level and we may see a small bounce from here before we go back down.

The EUR has gone gang-busters recently. It broke past its Fib fan level and went straight for its Fib retracement level, hit it intra-day and fell back down. I would expect this to fall back down to 1.35 or so before moving higher.

As I've said time and time again, UDN and UUP are great ways to play the dollar using ETF's. I bought in around $24.50 a while back and am still holding on to these positions. While the are in the green very nicely, I think the increased volume will help push this up even move as the dollar weakens over the next couple of months. Again, this is a great way to hedge dollar weakness.

Tomorrow will bring more news and more volatility without a doubt. Let's all get some sleep and wake up ready to take on another day of major market moves. Don't forget to sign up for my Trading Membership before the prices go up! That's right, I've decided to increase the subscription fees for new members due to all the increased time and effort I'm putting into helping my members better sign up now!

Monday, December 15, 2008

Still No Auto Bailout? How To Use My Daily S&P Targets To Trade...

Good Morning! Pre-market futures are pointing to a slightly lower open as of this writing. Still no automotive bailout bill over the weekend as the UAW remains firm in their convictions for wages. The FOREX markets are moving again this morning (dollar weakness) which is helping Oil raise again. I've told everyone about this relationship many many times before and I'm glad to see things shaping up nicely. You may want to check my archived posts which clearly show why I've been short term bullish on Oil and short term bearish on the dollar. UUP and UDN still remain as some of my best holdings and have seen great percentage moves last week after hammering out a huge base!

Below are my targets for the SPX for today and the week. As always, weekly targets are in purple and daily levels are in green. Note: At each higher or lower level my bet for a reversal (either long or short) goes up. So, for instance, if we rally to 912 I will place a small trade for a daily reversal. But, if we blow past that level to 934, I will place a bigger bet for a daily reversal since we have moved so far. I think posting these levels could give you great targets for daily trades on the SPX.

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Forex Markets Move Big...Equity Market Weakens

It looked like we were going to see another rally today, but by mid-afternoon it quickly turned into a nearly 3% nose dive. The Forex markets sure showed some life today with the dollar weakening significantly across the board as I have said time and time again it would. Notice how the SPX hit my support target almost exactly today. This level has only a 54% chance of a reversal, so I am waiting until we get to 859 or lower before I think like the bullz again.

Note: I've got a bunch of new ideas for tomorrow, but you'll have to sign up for a membership to get these. I have been getting a tons of emails asking for advice about this stock and that stock. As I have been telling people, you can sign up to follow my trades. After all, it's cheap and I wouldn't want to give everything away for free of course. Besides, it's been my experience that free advice worth the price you pay!

Another extremely efficient exit today on my FOREX shorts. Even though the graphs show slightly long lower shadows for today's candle, Members received an email at 1:06pm today advising an exit on these two pairs which coincided almost exactly with the lows today! Wow, can't get better than that everyone!

The CHF was close enough for a one day move to lock in some profits. My target was 1.17 but a move to 1.18 in one day is good enough for anyone.

UA which caused some much discussion is shaping up great! It's down nearly 10% in two days and has acted just as I expected. For educational purposes, notice how yesterday it re-tested the shooting star highs, but the fell short on weak volume.

FCN was one stock I wish I would have made a trade on. I suggested it last week when it was at $55 and by the time I noticed it again yesterday it had already declined over 15%. Hope that some people actual took my advice on this stock. If you look at a longer term view, this company has a lot of room to move to the downside over the next couple of months.

Today was a great day all around. A couple of my positions didn't move as much as others, but they are still showing green across the screen. Happy Trading!

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Auto Industry Has 3 Months To Restructure

Good Morning. Headlines this morning are surrounding the auto bailout package of $15B. I personally think that three months is way too short to completely restructure these companies, but we will see how the "car czar" handles the situation. Pre-market futures are higher but not decisively on the bailout news. I have posted below my new support and resistance targets for the SPX today. Note that higher or lower levels mean taking larger bets on a reversal.

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Finally A Close Without Wild Last Second Swing

We finally closed down today after a short scare this morning that the rally would continue. I really don't have any opinion on the direction other than I think short term bearish is much more likely following the recent run ups. Also, its worth noting that T-bill auctions today saw rates at 0%! This means that people are willing to invest their money without a rate of return because they are so scared of the equity markets right now. That says alot folks...

UA. The long awaited short that caused quite a bit of commotion on facebook this afternoon among some people. Here is the reasoning behind my short. 1) 9 new highs were created during this move upward in a matter of 13 trading sessions. 2) the shooting star pattern today. 3) a retracement back to the 23% level almost exactly touching the line with today's highs. 4) the weak volume considering the strong move upward. 5) a move back to its 200 day moving average in green.

Granted there is talk about this company being bought out by Nike, but I would have expected the volume to be a little more convincing if everyone is 100% sure of a takeover. Not to mention that any investment bank advising this deal would like the stock to fall more before making an offer. It's run up nearly 60% on this move alone and has now reached irrational levels. So, am I discounting the fact that it could be taken over? No. But what the charts are telling me is that this stock has more likely odds of falling that raising. I'm keeping my stops tight as always to protect me from losses.

BBBY is another one that member's got an email about during the morning and should have made at least 2% already today since. I'm looking for a retracement around $21.50 or 50% of the move up recently. Also, I highlighted the volume to show how it has gotten considerably weaker during the move up which tells us that there is little to no conviction behind the move.

BGC is another nice short I have been talking about for a week now that posted a nice harmani cross/shooting star doji pattern today. Again, we can see that this touched the retracement level almost perfectly today and a move down below $15 should be no problem.

CBRL may move higher up to the draw trendline as I have said before. The volume has been week and you may want to place a short trade here with stops above the recent highs.

FCN made a considerable move downward today nearly 6%. I mentioned this stock last week as a possible short and its moving as I expected.

That's it for tonight folks. Just a note on individual stock requests. I am constantly flooded with emails from people asking me to analyze this stock and that stock. So here's the deal....if I don't post about it or send out an update (for member's only of course) than I'm not interested in it. I hope everyone can see where I'm coming from considering I go through hundreds of charts each day. Happy Trading!

Chalk Up Another Bailout...

Good Morning. It looks like automakers are going to get at least $15B in emergency loans from the government. As it stands now the US would get warrants for stock in exchange for the bailout loans to the Big 3. I personally think of all possibilities this may be a good exchange considering how low their stock price is and the ability of the US taxpayer (i.e. you and me) to reap benefits from an increase in value, if they ever get on the right track of course. Pre-market futures are bouncing between gains and losses and rightfully so after two days of more than 3% moves in the indexes. I have posted below my adjusted Support and Resistance targets. If we reach 941 on the SPX today I'm going ultra-super-short-term-short make no mistake.

Monday, December 8, 2008

Day Two Rally Ends Without Auto Bailout

Another big rally day but frankly it was a little boring for my portfolio. I have both puts and call which seemed to cancel each other out thought I have adjusted myself much more bearish short term. I think back to back rallies over 3% are very unsustainable in the short term. Notice on the S&P that the market rallied right into my weekly and daily resistance ranges which led me to take on some more index puts near the close. I think tomorrow we will see a modest sell off, unless we get some great auto bailout news that sparks the markets.

The CHF snapped back lower as I predicted earlier this morning. I have adjusted my stops to lock in the profit right now and still am holding out to a target of 1.17 or just a little lower.

The CAD had another great day following its massive shooting star pattern with a near 300 bip move. I think we might see this pair move back up slightly during an equity market sell off, which might be a great time for some of you out there who missed this to get back in the short side. Target around 1.21 or lower is very reasonable.

BBBY is another great short trade. A rally of nearly four up days in a row have lead me to think this stock will show considerable weakness very quickly. My short term target with my puts is to the $21 level.

CBRL is on my short watch list this week. I was about to short it on Friday but decided to wait and thankfully so considering the 5% jump today. We should all wait for a bearish candle pattern before we go hog wild shorting this as it still may have room to move back near its 200 day moving average.

Tomorrow should be interesting to see how the markets react to the auto bailout which I 100% expect to see in tomorrows news headlines at some point. Will we sell off like the other bailouts or rally up further leading us bearz with another opportunity to short like our life depends on it? Happy Trading!

Some Short Ideas This Morning



Can We Keep This Rally Going?

Good Morning! Futures are up nicely this morning on hope that the Big 3 will get the money they have been looking for last week from Congress. Word is that the deal may actually go through before the end of the day today. I think that if we have another rally today that is actually sustained, we will see a sharp drop off the next day. Below are my support and resistance targets for the SPX. Also, I note that Oil is up while the dollar is weakening like I predicted last week.

Saturday, December 6, 2008

When Bad News Leads To A Market Rally

What a week huh? This is one of those weeks that make us really think about the markets forming a new direction. Except for really Monday's big fall, the markets shrugged off bad news all week. And Friday...well the 3% rise following some of the worst employment data in decades really tells us this market is starting to price things in much more than we expect. My emotions are telling me that this is way out of the ordinary and we will be seeing more selling pressure on Monday, but at the same time, these charts are starting to scream "go long!" Frankly, everything is still way over-sold and due for a couple weeks of steady rally before the final fall early next year.

Looking at the chart of the DOW here you can see that we are still within the descending wedge formation, but are knocking on the doorstep of an upward breakout. Also, you can see that the shadows are all rejecting lower levels. One caveat to this week's ending was that volume on Friday was fairly weak given the large move. I think that we are going to see a slight sell off early next week before attempting to make to move upward again.

The Commodity Index is sporting a very nice hammer formation. Moreover, it successfully tested the midpoint of the bullish engulfing pattern of last week. My target for this is still around the 475 level.

OIH is still a long of mine that has taken a beating this week, but I am still confident in my price target around $85 or higher. Oil cannot keep falling straight down. It's too unrealistic not to mention that this market needs strong oil to help make the move higher for equities. The hammer formation and high volume are suggesting a nice rally over the next couple of days.

The USD/CAD has been extremely interesting over the last couple of days. Members know that I shorted it around 1.27 on Thursday and again just below the highs around 1.30. The triple top formation is huge here! Notice the bearish engulfing pattern around Nov. 23rd that was confirmed by the shooting star on Friday. My target for this short term is 1.21 and much lower of the next couple of months.

CHF is also another short for my Members. What's interesting about this pair is that when the dollar started to get weaker on Friday and all the other currencies started adjusting, the CHF didn't move that much (if at all really). So, I think this late bloomer is due for a quick and sharp response early next week if the equities rally. My target still remains 1.17 where the moving average and Fib retracement level converge.

Just wanted to highlight a couple of long and short ideas that I sent out on last week. K is a great call right now with great volume and the bullish engulfing pattern. Traveling back to $46 or higher should be very easy for this stock.

BHI is also posting a nice hammer formation and should rally with Oil.

CAM is just under its Fib retracement level which may be a risk for this long, but the bullish engulfing pattern and triple bottom presents a great risk/reward situation for this stock.

Some short ideas down given the markets rally. DHI has rallied up nearly 100% since its recent lows in early Dec. It's also hitting up against strong resistance and cannot maintain this straight up move for that much longer. A $6 target is a very realistic short trade target.

And finally AZO. This has rallied very strong this week but is now bumping up against both its 200 day moving average and its Fib fan levels. Also notice the shooting star pattern from Thursday that hinted at a reversal. My put orders for this didn't go through at the end of the day so I'll have to wait until Monday's open to short this down to $105 or lower.

Okay, I hope all these charts were helpful and give you some good ideas for next week. Happy Trading!

Friday, December 5, 2008

Shorting USD/CHF

Its time once again to short the USD/CHF. I didn't think we would get back up here so fast but we have to take advantage of this move. If the pair moves higher I will be adding to my position.

Oil Falling Out of Bed

Here is the most recent chart of Oil after the 6%+ drop in prices yesterday. You can see that we have broken a major channel trend line but that was long ago now. Oil continues to move rapidly away from its moving averages, both 50 and 200 day. Moreover, we have broken out of the bollinger bands once again. Whether is corrects next week or not, one thing I am certain on is that Oil cannot fall forever like this. It's just unrealistic. Plus, don't you think at some point our government will be stepping in to buy for our strategic reserves?

Jobs Data Worse Than Expected...Jobless Rate Rises to 6.7%

Good morning everyone! The jobless rate was worse than expected this morning and past jobs numbers were revised downward after the report. Futures have naturally sold off but are still not in depression mode as of yet. I think this is partly because most people expected a bad number this month so the data isn't all that surprising. Below I posted my support and resistance targets for the SPX. Tighten up stops on your longs and let your shorts run wild today.

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Jobless Claims Decline with Futures

Morning Everyone. Pre-market futures are down slightly this morning on bad news from a variety of sources. Merck said its earnings are going to miss estimates while its profit forecast was adjusted downward. AT&T is cutting jobs while the Big Three automakers have finally considered a form of pre-arranged bankruptcy. Also, the ECB cut its benchmark rate by a full point over the night. And finally, initial jobless claims declined a bit but continuing claims are expected to rise to 4.03 million.

Below are my support and resistance levels for the S&P. Intra-day are in the green and weekly in the purple. If the jobs numbers are either horrible or surprising good tomorrow we could see these weekly numbers reached very fast, so be prepared.