Wednesday, January 7, 2009

After 3% Drop We Reached The Break Point - Raise The Flag Formation

What a day huh? I'm glad I kept some of my index puts as they were very profitable today. For a change I want to take a look at the DOW as its forming one of the cleaner flag formations. These flag formations are very powerful trading tools and can be extremely important for your support and resistance levels. As you can see we have again reached the apex of the flag meaning that a breakout in either direction will show the new direction for the time being. And really it make sense. We have come up so far from the bottom that if we go higher we will get some renewed faith and buyers. Likewise, if we start to fall again, everyone will sell off predicting the next big fall. If we break below this level (which I was I am expecting somewhat) then I think the next area of support is in the green region on the graph. As always, check the daily support and resistance levels for intra-day trades.

Note: This month has already been great for members and there is much more profits on the horizon. Don't forget to sign up for a trading membership...and frankly it's dirt cheap for what you get.

I'm very happy that (YUM) has already worked out nicely as I've locked in a profit after the very first day. As you remember, members and I shorted this stock near the top of its move yesterday and are now nearly 5% in the money after only two days. I still think this head and shoulders retracement has much more room to move down to around the $29 level or lower.

Real quick I just wanted to take a look at the commodities index which enjoyed a nice run up over the last couple of weeks but broken down today. Once again, you can see how it came right up to its Fib fan level and retraced. We will look for some sort of support around 500 for the (CRX) index in the coming days.
And now some FOREX. The EURO below has just been crazy over the last couple of weeks. After a huge run up and eventual retracement back near its 50-day moving average, we are now sitting right above support from the Fib fan levels around 1.35. From here we should see a move back near the 200-day moving average. If we break the Fib fan support, the next levels of support should at the Fib retracement level at 1.305 or the 50-day moving average.
Finally we need to look at the CAD. A while back I had suggested that this was looking pretty bearish as it followed underneath its 50-day moving average. Well, as predicted it broke down heard falling nearly 400 pips since. I have highlighted a green support area on the graph which should prove firm as we continue the move down.
That wraps it up for today. See everyone tomorrow!