Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Free Money! Fed Cuts Rates to 0.25% And Markets Rally Big!

Well, I guess that 50 bps rate cut was already priced in during the morning, but we never really expected a cut to practically zero on the Fed Funds Target Rate. Nevertheless, the markets rallied big throughout the end of the day, closing near its highs. Still, I will point out that the SPX closed only 2 points away from my 90% daily reversal target at 911. As such, I entered in some index short positions at the close and I will try to catch some of the profit taking tomorrow or the next day. I also want to point out that the SPX broke above its 50-day moving average. Over the next couple of weeks, a move to 1,000 could be very realistic...



Following the decision, the dollar weakened significantly. Take a look at the CHF which I got out of my short position around 1.17 and wish I could have held on for this big move today. Notice that the move basically stopped at the Fib retracement level and we may see a small bounce from here before we go back down.



The EUR has gone gang-busters recently. It broke past its Fib fan level and went straight for its Fib retracement level, hit it intra-day and fell back down. I would expect this to fall back down to 1.35 or so before moving higher.



As I've said time and time again, UDN and UUP are great ways to play the dollar using ETF's. I bought in around $24.50 a while back and am still holding on to these positions. While the are in the green very nicely, I think the increased volume will help push this up even move as the dollar weakens over the next couple of months. Again, this is a great way to hedge dollar weakness.



Tomorrow will bring more news and more volatility without a doubt. Let's all get some sleep and wake up ready to take on another day of major market moves. Don't forget to sign up for my Trading Membership before the prices go up! That's right, I've decided to increase the subscription fees for new members due to all the increased time and effort I'm putting into helping my members trade...so better sign up now!