Wednesday, December 3, 2008

400+ Intra Day Swing Leaves Us Confused

Another crazy day ends with more volatility. What's new right? I still remain reluctant to make a big predictions on the markets outlook, though I am bearish short term given the recent run up during bad news. Moreover, with the jobs reports coming out on Friday, I expect things to sell off pretty good before we get another rally going. But, I could be wrong given that today's beige book from the Fed was terribly bearish and yet the bullz rallied hard into the close.

Looking at the DOW you can see that I have draw some pretty strong resistance and support levels that form a declining pennant formation. Ideally, I would like to see a close over 9,000 and over its 50-day moving average before I get ride the bullz up. My short term thought is that the bearish engulfing pattern from Monday is now tested (i.e. the mid-point retracement), and we should see at some sort of selling pressure soon.

I made note to members that I shorted the USD/CHF again. Again, the bearish engulfing pattern and shooting stars are great indicators of the bearz taking charge here. Based on it's past history of moving back to its 50-day moving average, I'll be looking to take profits around 1.17 where the 28% Fib retracement level is at as well.

BHI is a good looking long play if we get continued weakness during the end of the week. A quick run to $35 should be no problem short term for this stock.


FCX is another good long opportunity. It sold off hard today but look at the volume and the hammer formation. A retracement back to at least $30 (where the Fib level is sitting at) should be more than likely when the markets rally.