Tuesday, November 18, 2008

The Re-Re-Re Test of October Lows Successful

Okay I admit, I thought we were going to sell of going into the close today. But, I guess its better to be ready for a sell-off than a rally in this market. Nevertheless, I'm glad I didn't have any big index positions today with all the movement. The chart of the S&P clearly shows that we re-re-tested the lows of October again today. While this is a very good sign for the bullz, I still don't feel like everyone is ready for a sustained rally. If we can hold this level throughout the week then I would feel more comfortable going long next week and looking for a more sustained rally.

Member's know that one of my current FOREX positions is short the CHF which is way over-bought with the dollar. Surprisingly, this pair didn't adjust the last time the dollar weakened, so I have tight stops just in case it rallies.
I am starting to get a large position in UDN which is a dollar bearish fund from DB. Just another way these ETF's are helping us play in all the markets.
If we do start to see a rally, here are some stocks that are looking like nice setups. DRI was a former short that has been beaten down badly. I wouldn't expect this rally much (maybe to around $21), but enough to make a profit with minimal risk.
Still confident about my SMH long position to the highlighted level over the next month or so. Bollinger bands also suggest a push higher soon.
XEC is a great energy long energy play when oil turns around. Its sitting on Fib suport and has followed oil nearly in lock-step since its highs.
Here is very interesting long idea. Berkshire H. sported a very clean hammer formation today and is nearly $25,000 from its 200-day moving average. Remeber that Warren B. has never split this stock, but for those of you who have the money, now would be a great time to think about buying into Berkshire.
I hope tomorrow continues the rally we had a the close. I'm ready for the wave of buying to return short term so that we can get back to levels where we can short again. Trust me, even if we put together a nice month long rally, this bear market is not nearly over yet!