Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Just Pick A Direction Already

Open down, rally up, close down...I just wish this market would let the bullz or bearz win the tug-of-war. If you look at the chart below, the S&P has been trading between 1,000 and 850 for nearly a month now. And, it has had wild swings between these levels the whole time. I have both LONGs and SHORTs in my portfolio just waiting for the big break in any direction. Like I said on Monday, I hope this week shows us the new short term direction (either bullish or bearish).



Oil and Gold continue to get hammered but are showing signs of firming up a bit. The commodity index has just been crushed over the last couple of months. Still, I think we should wait until we see a clearer road (though you could start selectively buying some of these while keeping cash in case you can get better prices later). If we see a strong rally, getting to the 600 level should be no problem at all.



The DBC Tracking Fund is a good LONG play right now. I bought calls today as I think this will head back up to the $30 level over the next couple of months.



The following are a couple short ideas that still look attractive. Many have had very nice runs up over the last couple of weeks and are due for some short term corrections. If the markets tank these will surely be great trades.







The GBP looks very interesting to me as a LONG candidate. If the markets sure up sooner than later, the dollar could fall very fast again. I have been saying for a while that the dollar's weakness won't happen over-night. We had great trades last week (if you were a member) when the dollar was way over-bought. I got out at a nice profit and suggested to everyone that we wait until we get better pricing and ride the wave back down again. Well, I think we are close to the level where we can get back in. Notice how the GBP is sitting on support from its Fib levels.

My advice in these market right now is to be patient. Let the direction be set and then follow it up or down. Again, I have both LONG and SHORT positions in anticipation of a big move for both the bullz and bearz. Either way, we should be ready to make a lot of money soon!