So, I just wanted to highlight my general opinion of things to come. First, crude has been falling like a rock. Today we heard some analysts talking about it going to $50 a barrel before the end of the year (will it happen...it could). Yet, this sounds so reminiscent of what happened just three months ago when analysts were predicting $200 a barrel and then oil made the "big turn." So, I think we are going to see oil start to climb for a variety of reason. As you can see in the chart, its fallen through every Fib fan and retracement level out there, not to mention its now below and very important channel. I think we have reached a fairly stable level (let's hope) with a pull back to near the 200-day moving average very likely.
Second, the dollar has been shooting through the roof. I wont even get into why I think this a ridiculous play for the bullz. Still, its gotten way over-bought. I bought some UUP dollar ETF puts today because I think the dollar will show some weakness soon. Any relative weakness in the dollar with also help push oil prices up for us!
Finally, back to my long oil plays. I had some DUG calls that did well, but have since traded them out for DIG calls. Notice the long lower shadows I highlighted. These indicate strong buying interest at these levels (which have been consecutively higher and higher). My big plays for the next couple of weeks are going to be this: short the dollar, long oil and gold. Sweet and simple! If things keep getting over-sold and over-bought, I'll keep adding to my positions (like I did today with OIH).
